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Revisiting value-at-risk and expected shortfall in oil markets under structural breaks : the role of fat-tailed distributions
Patra, Saswat - In: Energy economics 101 (2021), pp. 1-11
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013161743
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Systemic risk in international stock markets : role of the oil market
Yin, Libo; Feng, Jiabao; Han, Liyan - In: International review of economics & finance : IREF 71 (2021), pp. 592-619
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012627999
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High-dimensional CoVaR network connectedness for measuring conditional financial contagion and risk spillovers from oil markets to the G20 stock system
Liu, Bing-Yue; Fan, Ying; Ji, Qiang; Hussain, Nazim - In: Energy economics 105 (2022), pp. 1-17
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013201958
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Mutual excitation between OECD stock and oil markets : a conditional intensity extreme value approach
Herrera, Rodrigo; González, Sergio; Clements, Adam - In: The North American journal of economics and finance : a … 46 (2018), pp. 70-88
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012036606
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Dynamic return-volatility dependence and risk measure of CoVaR in the oil market : a time-varying mixed copula model
Liu, Bing-Yue; Ji, Qiang; Fan, Ying - In: Energy economics 68 (2017), pp. 53-65
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011904999
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Using Global VAR Models for Scenario-Based Forecasting and Policy Analysis
Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew - 2012
This chapter demonstrates the usefulness of the GVAR modelling framework as a tool for scenario-based forecasting and counterfactual analysis. Working with the GVAR model developed by Greenwood-Nimmo, Nguyen and Shin (2010, J. Appl. Econometrics), we first show how probabilistic forecasting can...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013108754
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On the economic determinants of optimal stock-bond portfolios : international evidence
Conrad, Christian; Stürmer, Karin - 2017 - This version: May 31, 2017
Using a modified DCC-MIDAS specification that allows the long-term correlation component to be a function of multiple explanatory variables, we show that the stock-bond correlation in the US, the UK, Germany, France, and Italy is mainly driven by inflation and interest rate expectations as well...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011745369
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Forecasting with Bayesian global vector autoregressive models : a comparison of priors
Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús; Feldkircher, Martin; Huber, Florian - 2013 - This version: November 2013
This paper puts forward a Bayesian version of the global vector autoregressive model (B-GVAR) that accommodates international linkages across countries in a system of vec-tor autoregressions. We compare the predictive performance of B-GVAR models for the one- and four-quarter ahead forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011505823
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Understanding Housing Market Volatility
Fairchild, Joseph - 2013
fraction of housing market volatility is local. And the local volatilities mostly are due to time-variations of idiosyncratic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013090400
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Global Long-run Risk and International Business Cycles : A Factor-Stochastic Volatility Approach
Figueiredo, Calebe - 2018
factor are typically small, with the annualized unconditional volatility estimated at 0.06%, but highly persistent, with … estimated persistence at 0.98. Evidence of time variation in the volatility of the global factor is overwhelming as there are … times in which volatility could be several times larger than its unconditional level (about ten times in the aftermath of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908986