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volatility and Student-t disturbances outperforms restricted alternatives that feature either attributes. The VAR model with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339759
The present article deals with intra-horizon risk in models with jumps. Our general understanding of intra-horizon risk is along the lines of the approach taken in [BRSW04], [Ro08], [BMK09], [BP10], and [LV19]. In particular, we believe that quantifying market risk by strictly relying on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012179511
I propose a Bayesian quantile VAR to identify and assess the impact of uncertainty and certainty shocks, unifying Bloom's (2009) two identification steps into one. I find that an uncertainty shock widens the conditional distribution of future real economic activity growth, in line with a risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012180723
We propose a copula-based periodic mixed frequency GAS framework in order to model and forecast the intraday Exposure Conditional Value at Risk (ECoVaR) for an intraday asset return and the corresponding market return. In particular we analyze GAS models which account for long-memory-type of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014352170
In this paper, we extend the standard Gaussian stochastic-volatility Bayesian VAR by employing the generalized …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015084442
The Kilian and Murphy (2014) structural vector autoregressive model has become the workhorse model for the analysis of oil markets. I explore various refinements and extensions of this model, including the effects of (1) correcting an error in the measure of global real economic activity, (2)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012230336
This paper studies macroeconomic consequences of oil price shocks caused by innovations in the monopoly power in the oil market. Monopoly power is interpreted as oil producers' ability to charge a markup over marginal costs. We propose a novel way to identify markup shocks based on meetings of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014118702
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011596312
Energy market volatility affects macroeconomic conditions and can unduly affect the economies of energy …-producing countries. Large price swings can be detrimental to both producers and consumers. Market volatility can cause infrastructure and … benefit of consumers and producers alike. Therefore, modeling and forecasting crude oil price volatility is critical in many …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014161014
We propose a methodology to include night volatility estimates in the day volatility modeling problem with high … the natural relationship between the realized measure and the conditional variance. This improves volatility modeling by … leverage effect and maintains a mathematical structure that facilitates volatility estimation. A class of bivariate models that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012160811