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volatility. The study investigates whether the asymmetric effects of good and bad news on volatility is present and how … distributional assumptions affect the selection of GARCH models. Compared to two widely used historical volatility models, the simple … the forecasts of loan market volatility. The model comparison involves a regression-based approach, loss functions and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013220294
We propose a model that extends the RT-GARCH model by allowing conditional heteroskedasticity in the volatility process …. We show we are able to filter and forecast both volatility and volatility of volatility simultaneously in this simple … setting. The volatility forecast function follows a second-order difference equation as opposed to first-order under GARCH(1 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013234440
simultaneously estimated. Results with realized volatility, volumes and number of trades of the JNJ stock show that significantly … superior realized volatility forecasts are delivered with a fully interdependent vMEM relative to a single equation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011654447
This paper proposes a new class of multivariate volatility model that utilising high-frequency data. We call this model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012009351
To simultaneously consider mixed-frequency time series, their joint dynamics, and possible structural changes, we introduce a time-varying parameter mixed-frequency VAR. To keep our approach from becoming too complex, we implement time variation parsimoniously: only the intercepts and a common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011903709
In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with timevarying system matrices where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012156426
This paper studies predictability of realized volatility of U.S. Treasury futures using high-frequency data for 2-year … to generate systemic under-predictions of future realized volatility. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012542381
formulate a volatility forecast of returns used as an input for determining some subjective views to be included in the Black …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998423
section compares stochastic volatility models with GARCH. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014023699
the benchmark (MSCI EFM (World) index) weights. MSCI previously stood for Morgan Stanley Capital International. The … best. Also, the volatility forecasts generated from multivariate time series models can be successfully converted into … higher portfolio returns using quantitative investment approaches if the right balance of volatility modelling and portfolio …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013391097