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This paper investigates the importance of housing price and quantity variables in the UK business cycle since the mid 1950s. We start with a baseline Markov-switching common factor model for the UK economy into which we incorporate a house price variable (nationwide house price index) and a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013034620
-correction equations for Canadian aggregate consumption, house prices and mortgage debt. We find strong evidence that, after controlling … increase the mortgage down-payment requirement and reduce consumption, although there is evidence for some attenuation of this … mostly explained by movements in incomes, housing supply, mortgage interest rates and credit conditions, suggesting that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011408596
housing boom accelerated, fueled by rapid growth in mortgage lending. There is deep disagreement about how, or even if … tightening induced a large reduction in banks' deposit funding, which led them to contract new on-balance sheet mortgage lending … originators. Fed tightening thus induced a shift in the mortgage market away from stable, insured deposit funding toward run …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012850098
Mortgage refinancing activity associated with extraction of home equity contains a strongly counter-cyclical component … empirically evaluate its predictions for the households' choices of leverage, liquid assets, and mortgage refinancing using micro …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012857299
Understanding the evolution of real-time beliefs about house price appreciation is central to understanding the U.S. housing crisis. At the peak of the recent housing cycle, both borrowers and lenders appealed to optimistic house price forecasts to justify undertaking increasingly risky loans....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008657906
Understanding the evolution of real-time beliefs about house price appreciation is central to understanding the U.S. housing crisis. At the peak of the recent housing cycle, both borrowers and lenders appealed to optimistic house price forecasts to justify undertaking increasingly risky loans....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136981
We analyze whether mid-level managers in securitized finance were aware of a large-scale housing bubble and a looming crisis in 2004-2006 using their personal home transaction data. We find that the average person in our sample neither timed the market nor were cautious in their home...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013064378
This paper provides evidence for the propagation of idiosyncratic mortgage supply shocks to the macroeconomy. Based on … micro-level data from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act for the 1990-2016 period, our results suggest that lender …-specific mortgage supply shocks affect aggregate mortgage, house price, and employment dynamics at the regional level. The larger the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012485491
This paper provides evidence for the propagation of idiosyncratic mortgage supply shocks to the macroeconomy. Based on … micro-level data from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act for the 1990-2016 period, our results suggest that lender …-specific mortgage supply shocks affect aggregate mortgage, house price, and employment dynamics at the regional level. The larger the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012498347
risk in the mortgage market raises the default rate and spreads to the rest of the economy, creating a recession. In our … model two shocks are well suited to replicate the subprime crisis and the Great Recession: the mortgage risk shock and the …. This policy is successful in stabilizing the mortgage market and makes all agents better off. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011660977