declines in output, in ation, and the interest rate. Moreover, we document strong global impacts, making the world move in a …

factors from trade-related spillovers, and identify the Covid-19 shock using GDP growth forecast revisions of the IMF in 2020Q … observations. Our results show that the Covid-19 pandemic will lead to a significant fall in world output that is most likely long …

heightened risk aversion, leading to shifts in investment portfolio allocations and cross-border capital flows; a nd t he r eal e …

mobility data and the depreciation rate of currencies. The panel estimation takes the question of causality seriously by using …

leads to a significantly smaller increase in long-term bond yields if policy uncertainty is high at the time of the shock … are robust to the measurement of monetary policy uncertainty and the definition of the monetary policy shock. We argue … policy uncertainty leads to opposite effects with term premia increasing even more after a policy shock. …

across countries through risk variables, spurring a literature on the "global financial cycle." This paper studies how … (conventional and unconventional) monetary policy shocks affect risk and uncertainty in three large economies: the US, euro area …, and Japan. We construct measures of financial risk factors for each country by decomposing option-implied variances of the …