This study analyses how liquidity risk affects bonds' yield spreads after controlling for credit risk, bond …

Expectations of risky bond payments are unobservable and recovery rates for sovereigns are hard to estimate because …

Bond excess returns can be predicted by macro factors, however, large parts remain still unexplained. We apply a novel … term structure model to decompose bond excess returns into expected excess returns (risk premia) and the unexpected part … possible determinants of bond excess returns. We find that the expected part of bond excess returns is driven by macro factors …

This research investigates the macro factors for forecasting (1) bond risk premia and (2) term structure of government … bond yields by using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) based on empirical prior. Different from the traditional variable … further improve the other method's forecasting performance. The performance of using BMA to forecast bond excess return is …

Using data on government bond yields in Germany and the United States, we show that overseas unspanned factors … for subsequent domestic bond returns. This result is remarkably robust, holding for different sample periods, as well as … term structure models that omit information about foreign bond yields are therefore likely to be misspecified …

procedure, to estimate the yield differential between a green bond and an otherwise identical synthetic conventional bond from … July 2013 to December 2017. The results suggest a small negative premium: the yield of a green bond is lower than that of a … conventional bond. On average, the premium is -2 basis points for the entire sample as well as for EUR and USD bonds separately. We …

I analyze time series momentum along the Treasury term structure. Past bond returns predict future returns both due to … autocorrelation in bond risk premia and because unexpected bond return shocks increase the premium. Yield curve momentum is primarily … due to autocorrelation in yield changes rather than autocorrelation in bond carry and can largely be captured using a …

The purpose of this paper is to study the compensation for in ation risks priced in sovereign bond yields. And we do so … expected and unexpected in ation shocks embedded in sovereign bond yields; and provides estimates of the real risk-free rate …. We show that nominal sovereign bond yields for Germany, France, Japan and the United States, reflect, over the more …

Understanding the behaviour of the equity yield and its relation to the bond yield is important for portfolio managers … previously greater than the bond yield-declined, while the bond yield rose and became higher. Research, seeking to understand … this, put forward the view that stock and bond return volatility is key. Evidence from the 2000s suggest that the relative …

we label Convergence Gap (CG), contains information that is valuable for bond predictability. Adding CG in forecasting … regressions of bond excess returns significantly raises the R-squared, and restores countercyclical variation in bond risk premia … the path of rates, our factor has predictive ability for real bond excess returns. The importance of the gap remains …