This paper reconsiders the degree to which the sign patterns of hypothesized structural arrays limit the possible outcomes for the sign pattern of the corresponding estimated reduced form. To now, the conditions under which any such restrictions would apply were believed to be very narrow, are...

Chan and Maheu (2002) developed a GARCH-jump mixture model, namely, the GARCH-jump with autoregressive conditional jump intensity (GARJI) model, in which two conditional independent processes, i.e., a diffusion and a compounded Poisson process, are used to describe stock price movements caused...

In the context of the liberalized and deregulated electricity markets, price forecasting has become increasingly important for energy company's plans and market strategies. Within the class of the time series models that are used to perform price forecasting, the subclasses of methods based on...

This paper reconsiders the degree to which the sign patterns of hypothesized structural arrays limit the possible outcomes for the sign pattern of the corresponding estimated reduced form. The conditions under which any structural restrictions would apply were believed to be very narrow, rarely...

Even in scientific disciplines, forecast failures occur.  Four possible states of nature (a model is good or bad, and it forecasts well or badly) are examined using a forecast-error taxonomy, which traces the many possible sources of forecast errors.  This analysis shows that a valid model can...

The derived structural estimates of the system beta Y = gamma Z | delta U impose identifying restrictions on the reduced form estimates ex post. Some or all of the derived structural estimates are presented as evidence of the model’s efficacy. In fact, the reduced form inherits a great...

A recent literature, e.g., Lady and Buck (2011), has shown that a qualitative analysis of a model’s structural and estimated reduced form arrays can provide a robust procedure for assessing if a model’s hypothesized structure has been falsified. This paper shows that the even...

The derived structural estimates of the system βY=γZ+δU impose identifying restrictions on the reduced form estimates ex post. Some or all of the derived structural estimates are presented as evidence of the model's efficacy. In fact, the reduced form inherits a great deal of information from...

In this reply, I salute the correction, replication, and extensions carried out by David Findlay and John Santos (2012) based on my jointly authored paper Hewitt, Muñoz, Oliver, and Regoli (2005). I expound briefly on why, even though we and they have found no statistically significant...

This is a supplement to “Race, Ethnicity, and Baseball Card Prices: A Replication, Correction, and Extension of Hewitt, Muñoz, Oliver, and Regoli” in which we investigate the effects of career performance, card quality and availability, and player race and ethnicity on baseball card prices....