Many central banks have come to rely on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, or DSGE, models to inform their economic outlook and to help formulate their policy strategies. But while their use is familiar to policymakers and academics, these models are typically not well known outside these...

The Queen of England famously asked her economic advisers why none of them had seen "it" (the global financial crisis) coming. Obviously, the answer is complex, but it must include reference to the evolution of macroeconomic theory over the postwar period—from the "Age of Keynes," through the...

In this paper we derive a theoretical macro accumulation function, which relies on the accelerator principle and is complemented by utilizing capacity and profits. This investigation also accounts for several sources and kinds of uncertainty: exchange rates for financial uncertainty, oil prices...

Several aspects of the difficulties of policy at the zero lower bound are discussed: The difficulty of credible commitment to higher future inflation, as most New Keynesian models imply is necessary; the need for fiscal and monetary policy coordination; the pitfalls in the taking of quasi-fiscal...

Harry S Truman is best remembered as the President who witnessed the swift arrival of the Cold War in the tumultuous years after World War Two. Little however has been written to show that he was also the populist President who set the political economic course for the United States to win it...

The performance of Italian economy has always been a fascinating puzzle for economists, both during the miraculous economic boom and in the current age of zero growth. This paper identifies the sluggish productivity dynamic as the main explanatory factor of Italian growth limits. It analyses the...

Blending past and present, this brief history of economics is the perfect book for introducing students to the field. A Brief History of Economics illustrates how the ideas of the great economists not only influenced societies but were themselves shaped by their cultural milieu. Understanding...

Using Bayesian methods, we estimate a Markov-switching New Keynesian (MSNK) model that allows shifts in the monetary policy reaction coefficients and shock volatilities with U.S. data. We find that a more aggressive monetary policy regime was in place after the Volcker disinflation and before...

In this paper I employ Imre Lakatos's methodology of scientific research programs to scrutinize the idea that stagflation in the 1970s falsified the Keynesian research program. I point out that Keynesian models were able to account for stagflation once they included inflation expectations, so...

Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Bundesbank — Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Spring 2012 Research Conference, Eltville, Germany, May 25, 2012