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Exceeding Expectations : Economic Forecasts, Anchroing Bias and Stock Returns

Birz, Gene - 2019

rational as they exhibit an anchoring bias. The forecasts systematically under-predict macroeconomic statistics and the … through this bias, i.e. we find statistically significant stock price effects of anticipated components of macroeconomic …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904534

Short-Rate Expectations and Unexpected Returns in Treasury Bonds

Cieslak, Anna - 2018

I document large and persistent errors in investors' expectations about the short-term interest rate over the business cycle. The largest errors arise in economic downturns and during Fed easings when investors overestimate future short rates and, thus, underestimate future bond returns. At a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938527

Gender differences in wage expectations : the role of biased beliefs

Briel, Stephanie; Osikominu, Aderonke; Satlukal, Sascha - In: Empirical economics : a quarterly journal of the … 62 (2022) 1, pp. 187-212

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012819434

Revealed Expectations and Learning Biases : Evidence from the Mutual Fund Industry

Nicolai, Francesco - 2020

-form and structural evidence of managers displaying recency and primacy bias. Finally, we estimate an average coefficient of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012850640

Biases in Expectations : Experimental Evidence

Landier, Augustin - 2020

We study belief formation in a large-scale experiment where participants forecast a stable random process, across a rich set of conditions. We have three main findings. First, the rational expectations hypothesis is strongly rejected and we find little evidence of learning over time. Second,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012853661

Identification of First-Price Auctions with Biased Beliefs

Grundl, Serafin - 2015

This paper exploits variation in the number of bidders to separately identify the valuation distribution and the bidders' belief about the valuation distribution in first-price auctions with independent private values. Exploiting variation in auction volume the result is extended to environments...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013018386

Biased Beliefs and Imperfect Information

Proto, Eugenio - 2015

test two main hypotheses: (i) whether for items not perfectly observable, individuals suffer of some type of bias in these … beliefs; (ii) whether this bias would disappear for weight and height, when the information is perfectly available. We find a … powerful and ubiquitous bias in perceptions that is "self-centered" in the sense that those at extremes tend to perceive …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013026876

Do Sellers Exploit Biased Beliefs of Buyers? An Experiment

Wenner, Lukas - 2016

I study experimental markets in which sellers interact with buyers who have biased beliefs about the characteristics of the product that is being sold. I examine whether such buyers can be exploited by sellers through the use of specifically designed pricing structures, as suggested by recent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012985334

Interest rate skewness and biased beliefs

Bauer, Michael D.; Chernov, Mikhail - 2021 - First draft: January 2021, this draft: June 16, 2021

Conditional yield skewness is an important summary statistic of the state of the economy. It exhibits pronounced variation over the business cycle and with the stance of monetary policy, and a tight relationship with the slope of the yield curve. Most importantly, variation in yield skewness has...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012547050

Interest rate skewness and biased beliefs

Bauer, Michael D.; Chernov, Mikhail - 2021 - This draft: June 16, 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012584702