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How to limit the spillover from the 2021 inflation surge to inflation expectations?
Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan - 2022
By providing numerical inflation projections. Many central banks currently face inflation well above their targets and with that the challenge to prevent spillovers on inflation expectations. We study the effect of different communication about the 2021 inflation surge on German consumers'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012820929
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How to limit the spillover from an inflation surge to inflation expectations
Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan - 2022
We study the effects of forward looking communication in an environment of rising inflation rates on German consumers' inflation expectations using a randomized control trial. We show that information about rising inflation increases short- and long-term inflation expectations. This initial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013278897
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How to limit the spillover from the 2021 inflation surge to inflation expectations?
Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan - 2022
By providing numerical inflation projections. Many central banks currently face inflation well above their targets and with that the challenge to prevent spillovers on inflation expectations. We study the effect of different communication about the 2021 inflation surge on German consumers'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012814490
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How to limit the spillover from an inflation surge to inflation expectations?
Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan - 2023
We study the effects of forward-looking communication in an environment of rising inflation rates on German consumers' inflation expectations using a randomized control trial. We show that information about rising inflation increases short- and long-term inflation expectations. This initial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247283
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Understanding persistent stagnation
Cuba-Borda, Pablo; Singh, Sanjay R. - 2019 - This version: February 2019
We theoretically explore long-run stagnation at the zero lower bound in a representative agent framework. We analytically compare expectations-driven stagnation to a secular stagnation episode and find contrasting policy implications for changes in government spending, supply shocks and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012004630
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Identifying money and inflation expectation shocks on real oil prices
Benk, Szilárd; Gillman, Max - 2023
role played by inflation expectations and the money supply shocks during major oil shock episodes. These shocks partially … replace roles previously attributed to the precautionary oil demand shock and the aggregate demand shock during the three … major oil shock periods of the 1970s-1980s, post-2008 and during the 2020-2021 pandemic. The results show that both real oil …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014295388
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International dynamics of inflation expectations
Netšunajev, Aleksei; Winkelmann, Lars - 2016
To what extent are US and Euro Area (EA) inflation expectations determined by foreign shocks? How do transmissions change during the great recession and European sovereign debt crisis? We address these questions with a flexible structural VAR model of weekly financial markets’ inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011458367
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The role of long-term inflation expectations for the transmission of monetary policy shocks
Diegel, Max; Nautz, Dieter - 2020 - This version: November 10, 2020
monetary policy shock. In line with a re-anchoring channel of monetary policy, we find that long-term inflation expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012311576
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How do agents form macroeconomic expectations? : evidence from inflation uncertainty
Wang, Tao - 2024 - Last updated: February 16, 2024
This paper studies the behaviors of uncertainty through the lens of several popular models of expectation formation. The full-information rational expectations model (FIRE) predicts that both the ex ante uncertainty and the variance of ex post forecast errors are equal to the conditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014475397
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Expectations, monetary policy, and labor markets : lessons from the Great Depression
Reicher, Christopher Phillip - 2009
This paper estimates a series of shocks to hit the US economy during the Great Depression, using a New Keynesian model with unemployment and bargaining frictions. Shocks to long-run inflation expectations appear to account for much of the cyclical behavior of employment, while an increase in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003872040