This paper explores the extent to which commodity prices can predict GDP growth rates of various countries using indices of 27 commonly traded commodity futures. Commodity returns can strongly predict the next quarter's GDP growth, while the basis shows a reasonable level of predictive power....

The commodity futures basis—the difference between the first and second futures prices—is known to forecast commodity futures returns, arguably through its relation with the convenience yield. We propose a refined measure of the basis, dubbed the relative basis, which is the difference...

This paper studies the dynamic interaction between the net positions of traders and risk premiums in commodity futures markets. Short-term position changes are mainly driven by the liquidity demands of non-commercial traders, while long-term variation is primarily driven by the hedging demands...

This paper studies the dynamic interaction between the net positions of traders and risk premiums in commodity futures markets. Short-term position changes are mainly driven by the liquidity demands of non-commercial traders, while long-term variation is primarily driven by the hedging demands...

In this study, we examine whether the key findings in Tang and Xiong (2012) hold in the more recent sample years after their publication. We also explore the impact of financialization on different aspects of commodity futures markets in more detail. Our analysis shows that financialization...

This paper documents that crowding by market participants affects the expected return to popular factor strategies such as value, momentum, and carry. Using data published by the CFTC for commodity futures markets, we construct a direct measure of factor strategy crowding that is based on the...