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default probability, showing that it decreases with central bank bond-holdings. Calibrating the model to Germany and Italy, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013353456
We propose a smooth shadow-rate version of the dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DNS) model to analyze the term structure of interest rates during the recent zero lower bound (ZLB) period. By relaxing the no-arbitrage restriction, our shadow-rate model becomes highly tractable with a closed-form yield...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013356467
This paper provides new empirical evidence that bears on the efficacy of unconventional monetary policies when the main policy rate is negative. When a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) is deployed in concert with rate forward guidance (FG) and quantitative easing (QE), the identification of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012605260
combines government bond interest rates by maturity, fluctuates to reflect various macroeconomic factors. Central bank monetary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012611310
The yield curve is an important tool to assess the economic progress of a country. In this study, we examine the strength of the relationship between term spread and economic activity, and between the components of the yield curve and economic activity in the G7 countries using monthly data on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012611619
We developed a model-free Bayesian extraction procedure for the stochastic discount factor under a yield curve prior. Previous methods in the literature directly or indirectly use some particular parametric asset-pricing models such as with long-run risks or habits as the prior. Here, in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012611657
This paper analyzes whether there exists a relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future economic activity in Mexico for the period 2004-2019. In particular, we evaluate whether such relationship depends on the term premium. For this purpose, we estimate a threshold model in which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012616420
/unconventional monetary policies on sovereign bond return spillovers across countries and maturities since February 2007. Following the Taper …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012628453
The appearance of negative bond yields presents significant challenges for the fixed income markets, which mainly … negative sovereign bond yields. We conclude that the model adjusted well for all countries' yield curves, although no changes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012657495
calibrated model we find that 10-year euro area bond returns decline by 31 basis points in response to €1 trillion in central … bank bond purchases, which is in line with the empirical literature. QE leads to a substantial flattening of the yield … bond yields than conventional QE. However, the spread between green and brown bond yields decreases with conventional QE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012698579