We find that procyclical stocks, whose returns comove with business cycles, earn higher average returns than countercyclical stocks. We use almost a three-quarter century of real GDP growth expectations from economists' surveys to determine forecasted economic states. This approach largely...

In this paper we study the macroeconomic effects of changes in federal taxes for the Canadian economy for the time period 1961:1 - 2014:4. We employ the narrative methodology of Romer and Romer (2010) and Cloyne (2013) to identify exogenous changes in federal taxes. In particular, we study, in...

The employment to output elasticity has risen from 0.65 during the 1960s and 1970s to 1.25 in the last two decades. We study the role of recent technological change in the evolution of this elasticity along the business cycle. Using the Covid-19-induced shock and an instrumental variable...

This paper uses the Italian income tax treatment of 2006/7 as a quasi-natural tax experiment to offer some fresh empirical evidence on how labour supply responds to exogenous income tax hikes. We adopt the identification strategy based on TWFE panel data Difference-in-Differences (DID) model to...

This paper studies how measured beliefs can be used to identify monetary non-neutrality. In a general equilibrium model with both nominal rigidities and endogenous information acquisition, we analytically characterize firms' optimal dynamic information policies and how their beliefs affect...

We study the macroeconomic implications of narratives, defined as beliefs about the economy that spread contagiously. In an otherwise standard business-cycle model, narratives generate persistent and belief-driven fluctuations. Sufficiently contagious narratives can "go viral," generating...

Die deutsche Wirtschaft hat sich zu Jahresbeginn berappelt und besser entwickelt als zunächst erwartet. Kräftig gestiegene Bauinvestitionen - wenngleich aufgrund des milden Winterwetters eher ein Strohfeuer - und starke Warenexporte halfen ihr auf die Beine und konnten die enttäuschende...

The "histogram method" (Young, 2010), while the standard approach for analyzing distributional dynamics in heterogeneous agent models, is linear in optimal policies. We introduce a novel method that captures nonlinearities of distributional dynamics. This method solves the distributional...

This article aims to discuss the impact of the energy crisis exacerbated by the Russo-Ukrainian war on the general macroeconomic performance and income distribution of the Eurozone. We consider the restrictive monetary policies induced by the return of inflation, their declared and implicit...