Aggregate exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import and consumer prices in the EU is currently lower than it was in the 1990s and is non-linear. Low estimated aggregate ERPT to consumer prices does not at all mean that exchange rate movements do not have an impact on inflation, as aggregate...

This paper decomposes the time-varying effect of exogenous exchange rate shocks on euro area countries inflation into country-specific (idiosyncratic) and region-wide (common) components. To do so, we propose a flexible empirical framework based on dynamic factor models subject to drifting...

This paper presents the update of the macroeconometric model used at the Bank of Spain for medium term macroeconomic forecasting, as well as for performing policy simulations. The many changes that the Spanish economy has experimented in the last years, and the new system of national accounts...

The effect of the euro exchange rate on inflation has taken on significant importance recently, with the application of the ECB's expansionary monetary policy measures having coincided with episodes of euro appreciation, such as that observed between the second half of 2017 and early 2018, which...

This paper explores the behaviour of inflation expectations across countries that share their monetary policy, in particular those of the European Monetary Union. We investigate the possible common features at the various horizons, as well as differentials across euro area countries. A...

This paper decomposes the time-varying effect of exogenous exchange rate shocks on euro area countries inflation into country-specific (idiosyncratic) and region-wide (common) components. To do so, we propose a flexible empirical framework that is based on dynamic factor models subject to...

The Quarterly Model of Banco de España (MTBE, Modelo Trimestral del Banco de España) is a large-scale macro-econometric model used for medium term macroeconomic forecasting of the Spanish economy, as well as for evaluating the staff projections and performing scenario simulations. The model is...

The Quarterly Model of Banco de España (MTBE, Modelo Trimestral del Banco de España), is a large-scale macro-econometric model used for medium term macroeconomic forecasting of the Spanish economy, as well as for performing scenario simulations. The model is specified as a large set of error...

Aggregate exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import and consumer prices in the EU is currently lower than it was in the 1990s and is non-linear. Low estimated aggregate ERPT to consumer prices does not at all mean that exchange rate movements do not have an impact on inflation, as aggregate...