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Commodity markets are often assumed efficient yet commodities are not the same as shares and the structure of commodity markets can differ considerably from the structure of share markets. As a result we choose to explore the efficiency of the crude oil market using Wall Street Journal (WSJ)...
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The valuation of crude oil and gas reserves is a critical step in pricing crude oil and gas producing firms. This is of interest both to academics and practitioners who are called upon to value these firms. It is also of interest to regulators, particularly in their oversight of mergers and...
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Stock and options markets can disagree about a stock's value because of informed trading in options and/or price pressure in the stock. The predictability of stock returns based on this cross- market discrepancy in values is especially strong when accompanied by stock price pressure, and it does...
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We use machine-learning to determine the information content of the Item 1A Risk Factors section of S&P 1500 10-Ks. We identify and quantify 30 risk-factors and show a strong positive relation between levels of and contemporaneous changes in risk-factors and proxies for the associated risks....
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Based on standard option pricing arguments and assumptions (including no convenience yield and sustainable property rights), we will not observe operating gold mines. We find that asymmetric information on the reserves in the gold mine is a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of...
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Buying recent winners and shorting recent losers guarantees time varying factor exposures in accordance with the performance of common risk factors during the ranking period. Adjusted for this dynamic risk exposure, momentum profits are remarkably stable across subperiods of the entire post 1926...
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