This paper examines the real effects of banks switching to an expected credit loss (ECL) framework under IFRS 9. I identify the cross-bank variation in the ECL transition from banks' mandatory reconciliation disclosures about the day-one impact of the accounting change. I find evidence that the...

This paper examines regulators' optimal design for banks' expected credit loss impairment rules. Recognizing expected credit losses imposes market discipline and thus sound risk-taking ex ante (social gain) while it potentially distorts the bank's socially desirable liquidity provision ex...

In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, Robert Engle and colleagues at New York University developed the NYU Stern Systematic Risk Model (SRISK), a market-based substitute for regulatory measures of systemic risk of financial institutions. This study identifies four shortcomings of SRISK....

The new accounting standards, namely, IFRS 9 and CECL, require calculating the expected credit losses (ECL). In this article, we focus on the ECL calculation within the transition-based framework for retail lending products, including residential mortgages, home equity lines of credit (HELOCs),...

The recent global financial crisis has intensified calls to make the financial sector less crisis-prone, and to this end to make impairment recognition rules for debt instruments more forward looking. To better understand the behavior of different impairment rules and their potential effect on...

A parsimonious extension of a well-known portfolio credit-risk model allows us to study a salient stylized fact - abrupt switches between high- and low-loss phases - from a risk-management perspective. As uncertainty about phase switches increases, expected losses decouple from unexpected...

Extending a standard credit-risk model illustrates that a single factor can drive both expected losses and the extent to which they may be exceeded in extreme scenarios, ie "unexpected losses." This leads us to develop a framework for forecasting these losses jointly. In an application to...

Prior to 2018, accounting rules required banks that recognize financial liabilities at fair value to record unrealized gains and losses on the liabilities attributable to changes in the banks' own credit risk, referred to as the debt valuation adjustment (DVA), in earnings each period. Using a...

Economic policymakers express concern that procyclical lending by banks imperils financial stability. Prior research finds that banks that record timelier loan loss provisions originate more loans during downturns, consistent with loan-loss-provision timeliness mitigating loan-origination...

Large net loan charge-offs are frequently associated with large decreases in nonperforming loans and large increases in loan loss provisions, inducing a V-shaped relation between loan loss provisions and nonperforming loan changes. Failure to model the asymmetry attributable to net loan...