Our paper offers a minimalist model of a run on a financial market. The prime ingredient is that each risk-neutral investor fears having to liquidate after a run, but before prices can recover back to fundamental values. During the urn, only the risk-averse market-making sector is willing to...

This paper examines how to improve tactical asset allocation by better risk management instead of concentrating on maximising returns. This is achieved by using forecasts of the time- varying conditional covariance matrix of returns obtained from a new specification of the multivariate GARCH...

This paper examines the optimal allocation each period of an internationally diversified portfolio from the different points of view of a UK and a US investor. A multivariate GARCH model is used to estimate the conditional covariance matrix of returns, and to rebalance their portfolios each...

This paper seeks to identify potential determinants of short interest rate differentials across European countries. We rely on the portfolio theory of Tobin to choose our set of risk factors and then assess the ability of these macroeconomic variables to influence both the conditional mean and...

Employing the neutral Kindleberger definition of a bubble as "an upward price movement over an extended range that then implodes", this paper explores the causes of the "Japanese Bubble" of 1985 to 1990 without precluding the possibility that the bubble was due to perceptions of fundamentals....

Evidence of stock return predictability by financial ratios is still controversial as documented by inconsistent results for in-sample and out-of-sample regressions as well as substantial parameter instability. This paper shows that these seemingly incompatible results can be reconciled if the...

A German broker’s clients place similar speculative trades and therefore tend to be on the same side of the market in a given stock during a given day, week, month, and quarter. Aggregate liquidity effects, short sale constraints, the systematic execution of limit orders (coordinated through...

This paper analyses the determinants of international asset portfolios, using a neoclassical dynamic general equilibrium model with home bias in consumption. For plausible parameter values, the model explains the fact that typical investors hold most of their wealth in domestic assets (portfolio...

Our objective is to understand the trading strategy that would allow an investor to take advantage of 'excessive' stock price volatility and 'sentiment' fluctuations. We construct a general equilibrium model of sentiment. In it, there are two classes of agents and stock prices are excessively...

The paper presents a two-country macroeconomic model in which the number of financial assets is endogenous. Imperfect substitutability of assets and international transaction costs give a comparative advantage to large markets, because of demand effects. Agents have more incentives to undertake...