We analyze banking crises using a panel of macroeconomic and financial data for more than one hundred developing countries from 1975 through 1992. We find that banking crises in emerging markets are strongly associated with adverse external conditions. In particular Northern interest rates are...

Does gross or net debt matter for long-term sovereign spreads in emerging markets? The topic is important for understanding the borrowing cost implications of public asset liability management decisions (e.g. using assets to lower debt). We investigate this question using data on emerging market...

Inflation Targeting (IT) is a monetary policy in which keeping inflation as close as to the target level using policy tools is the main focus for many central banks. However, purely targeting inflation has the potential to reveal the drawback of the trade-off between inflation and output,...

Financial and economic stability are two main significant concepts of the countries. Many different actions are taken in order to reach this objective. In this process, interest rate plays a key role because it mainly affects the cost of investments and consumption decisions of the parties....

We investigate an unexplored link between the US mortgage spread and business cycle and house price fluctuations in emerging market economies (EMEs). An increase in the US mortgage spread leads to substantially lower output, investment, consumption, house and stock prices, and to an improvement...

This paper recognizes the importance of a large informal economy and interest rate fluctuations for business cycles in emerging countries. I document (1) a positive relationship between the relative volatility of consumption to output and the size of the informal economy, and (2) countercyclical...

The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging-market policymakers however believe that inflows lead to credit booms and rising output, and the evidence appears to go their way. To...

This paper documents the empirical relation between the interest rates that emerging economies face in international capital markets and their business cycles. The dataset used in the study includes quarterly data for Argentina during 1983-2000 and for Brazil, Mexico, Korea, and Philippines,...

This paper documents the empirical relation between the interest rates that emerging economies face in international capital markets and their business cycles. The dataset used in the study includes quarterly data for Argentina during 1983-2000 and for Brazil, Mexico, Korea, and...