Keynesian theory suggests that a reduction in government expenditure has a negative effect on private demand and therefore on output. Contrary, neoclassical theory argues that reduced public expenditure makes room for an expansion of the private sector and thus has a stimulating effect on the...

In recent years, the private sector has been recognized as a key engine of Africa's economic development. Yet, the most simple and fundamental question remains unanswered: how large is the African private sector? We present novel estimates of the size of the private sector in 50 African...

Die Entwicklung des privaten Verbrauchs ist eine entscheidende Größe bei der Erstellung makroökonomischer Prognosen im Rahmen der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen. Als erklärende Variable für die Konsumentwicklung spielt damit auch die Ersparnisbildung der Haushalte eine zentrale...

Die hohe Mobilität der Bevölkerung trägt zur Teilhabe am Arbeitsmarkt und am gesellschaftlichen Leben bei. Dabei ist der Mobilitätsbedarf stark von der Lebenssituation abhängig; so haben Studenten und Erwerbstätige die höchste Verkehrsnachfrage. Anders als in früheren Jahrzehnten wächst...

With a novel dataset, we test whether sentiment in TV news can be used as a proxy for consumer sentiment in order to explain changes in private consumption growth in the United States. The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is taken to compare its explanatory power with TV...

We perform principal components analyses of the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment and TV sentiment in order to gain information on their structure and information content. By introducing the new sentiment variable TV sentiment, gathered from sentiment from statements from over...

The development of private consumption is a crucial factor in compiling macroeconomic projections as part of national accounts. Household savings also play an important role as an explanatory variable for consumer development, since private households must decide whether to spend their incomes...

Information about special events can improve economic forecasts substantially. However, due to the lack of timely quantitative data about these events, it has been difficult for professional forecasters to utilise such information in their forecasts. This paper investigates whether Internet...

In this paper, we utilise data from a German population survey to test the validity of the Ricardian equivalence theorem (RET). In 2013, 2,000 representatively chosen people were asked whether they have altered their consumption and saving behaviour in response to the significant increase in...

The paper presents a theoretical model of private consumption that emcompasses both the conventional (Keynesian) view of fiscal policy and the Ricardian debt neutrality hypothesis.The effects of fiscal policy on private consumption are analyzed in an extended framework built on Blanchard's...