The UK economy has experienced significant macroeconomic adjustments following the 2016 referendum on its withdrawal from the European Union. This paper develops and estimates a small open economy model with tradable and non-tradable sectors to characterise these adjustments. We demonstrate that...

This paper introduces macroeconomic forecasters as political agents and suggests that they use their forecasts to in uence voting outcomes. We develop a probabilistic voting model in which voters do not have complete information about the future states of the economy and have to rely on...

This paper introduces macroeconomic forecasters as political agents and suggests that they use their forecasts to influence voting outcomes. We develop a probabilistic voting model in which voters do not have complete information about the future states of the economy and have to rely on...

This paper explores whether professional macroeconomic forecasters manipulate their forecasts to influence voting outcomes. We model a referendum in which a voter chooses between two policies. The voter relies on a forecaster to learn about the macroeconomic consequences of the policies. The...

If the UK cannot secure a ‘Norway' deal and stay within the internal market after Brexit, the UK will lose passporting rights for EU financial services and access to euro clearing and settlement, both of which make London attractive as a financial centre. A substantial part of the UK's...

This article reviews the impact of Brexit on the European System of Financial Supervision (ESFS) and claims that the withdrawal of the United Kingdom will lead to more centralisation of supervision at EU level and a tightening of the supervision over third countries' markets actors. This...

The fate of British finance following the Brexit referendum revolves around the "resilience or relocation" debate: will the City of London continue to thrive as the world’s leading financial centre or will the bulk of its activity move to rival hubs after departure from EU trading...