Based on 58,256 news articles published in the Financial Times during a 15-year period that cover companies in the DJIA, we find that a trading strategy that longs stocks with the most negative news and shorts stocks with the least negative news is not profitable. Consistent with this result, we...

We examine the pricing of tail risk in international stock markets. We find that the tail risk of different countries is highly integrated. Introducing a new World Fear index, we find that local and global aggregate market returns are mainly driven by global tail risk rather than local tail...

We examine the predictability of expected stock returns across horizons using machine learning. We use neural networks, and gradient boosted regression trees on the U.S. and international equity datasets. We find that predictability of returns using neural networks models decreases with longer...

We use intraday data to compute weekly realized variance, skewness, and kurtosis for equity returns and study the realized moments' time-series and cross-sectional properties. We investigate if this week's realized moments are informative for the cross-section of next week's stock returns. We...

This study examines whether investors’ attitudes toward ambiguity can explain cross-sectional stock returns by investigating the relationship between future stock returns and option-implied volatilities as well as implied third moments. We find that investors’ attitudes toward different...

This paper investigates whether the HML, the SMB along with the short-term reversal, the long-term reversal and the momentum factors exhibit both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting ability for the US stock returns. Our findings suggest that these factors contain significantly more...

We study the problem of detecting structural instability of factor strength in asset pricing models for financial returns. We allow for strong and weaker factors, in which the sum of squared betas grows at a rate equal to and slower than the number of test assets, respectively: this growth rate...

We posit that the pricing mechanism of interest rate risk is contingent upon the prevailing inflation levels; in times of high (low) inflation, a positive (negative) shock to interest rates is indicative of a negative economic state. In line with this proposition, we introduce a conditional...

This paper explores the predictive power of the absolute delta beta (ADB) on future cross-sectional stock returns. By univariate portfolio analysis, bivariate portfolio analysis, and decomposition of predictive power, we find that the ADB can produce an excess return in the next month. The...

We examine the effect of ambiguity exposure on the cross-section of stock returns in the US equity market. In order to quantify ambiguity, we use a recently-developed methodology that measures ambiguity by perturbations in uncertain probabilities, and aversion to ambiguity by aversion to...