Using unique data at transaction and counterparty identity level, we study the microstructure of the Swiss franc FX over‑the‑counter (OTC) derivatives market during a time of stress that was triggered by the decision of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to remove the Swiss franc‑euro exchange...

We forecast CPI inflation in the United Kingdom up to one year ahead using a large set of monthly disaggregated CPI item series combined with a wide set of forecasting tools, including dimensionality reduction techniques, shrinkage methods and non-linear machine learning models. We find that...

Cash holdings at the onset of a financial crisis are a key determinant of investment by SMEs not only during the crisis but also during the recovery period. Cash-rich SMEs could maintain their capital stock during the global financial crisis, while cash-poor rivals reduced theirs. This gave...

We introduce machine learning in the context of central banking and policy analyses. Our aim is to give an overview broad enough to allow the reader to place machine learning within the wider range of statistical modelling and computational analyses, and provide an idea of its scope and...

The local network structure of international trade relations offers a new dimension for understanding a country's competitive position vis-á-vis its trade partners and competitors, supporting economic policy analysis. We introduce two network measures that can be used to analyse comparative...