This paper analyses the response of inflation in the euro area to five macroeconomic shocks through the use of results derived from Eurosystem large-scale macroeconomic models. The main finding is that only a fiscal shock, and to a lesser extent a TFP shock, generate marked inflation...

This paper examines possible explanations for observed differences in the transmission of euro area monetary policy in central bank large-scale macroeconomic models. In particular it considers the extent to which these differences are due to differences in the underlying economies or (possibly...

The paper analyses the dynamic response of inflation to various economic shocks and investigates the sources of inflation persistence through a set of counter factual simulations. Analysis shows that inflation seems to be more persistent in Greece than, on average, in Euro Area. Inflation...

This paper analyses the response of inflation in the euro area to five macroeconomic shocks through the use of results derived from Eurosystem large-scale macroeconomic models. The main finding is that only a fiscal shock, and to a lesser extent a TFP shock, generate marked inflation...

This paper analyses the response of inflation in the euro area to five macroeconomic shocks through the use of results derived from Eurosystem large-scale macroeconomic models. The main finding is that only a fiscal shock, and to a lesser extent a TFP shock, generate marked inflation...

The economics profession in general, and economic forecasters in particular, have faced some understandable criticism for their failure to predict the timing and severity of the recent economic crisis. In this paper, we offer some assessment of the performance of the Economic Analysis conducted...

This paper examines the issue of the impact of aggregation in the empirical analysis of euro area labour markets. A Phillips Curve describing the adjustment of unit labour costs is estimated at the national and aggregate level for the 5 largest euro area countries. Potential sources of...

This paper analyses the monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area through the use of large scale macroeconomic models at the disposal of the European Central Bank and the National Central Banks of the Eurosystem. The results reported are based on a carefully designed common simulation...

This paper addresses some of the issues faced by macroeconomic model builders in analysing the monetary transmission mechanism. These include the sensitivity of the policy simulation results to changes in the monetary and fiscal policy rule and the introduction of forward-looking behaviour in...

This paper examines the impact of temporal variation in labour market institutions and other structural factors on unemployment in Europe. These include the influence of trade unions, social security benefits, employment security, mismatch between job seekers and vacancies, the minimum wage and...