We empirically investigate how well different learning rules manage to explain the formation of household inflation expectations in six key member countries of the euro area. Our findings reveal a pronounced heterogeneity in the learning rules employed on the country level. While the expectation...

This paper is the first attempt to investigate the performance of different learning rules in fitting survey data of household and expert inflation expectations in five core European economies (France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain). Overall it is found that constant gain learning...

Using three waves of a customised survey among Dutch households, this paper studies the variation in people's views on inflation. Based on a range of panel regressions, we find that accurate perceptions of recent price changes are an important determinant of the accuracy of next-year inflation...

The ECB concluded its strategy review in 2021 with a plan to include owner-occupied housing (OOH) costs in its inflation measure in the future. This paper uses the Bundesbank's online household panel to study how household expectations would react to this change. We conducted a survey experiment...

We study adaptive learning in a monetary overlapping generations model with sticky prices and monopolistic competition for the case where learning agents observe current endogenous variables. Observability of current variables is essential for informational consistency of the learning setup with...

We study adaptive learning in a monetary overlapping generations model with sticky prices and monopolistic competition for the case where learning agents observe current endogenous variables. Observability of current variables is essential for informational consistency of the learning setup with...

This paper combines several administrative data and a survey experiment to evaluate the role of lifestyle changes in influencing inflation expectations. Using data from Nielsen's Homescan Panel, as well as a leading bank in Singapore, we first document that households are upgrading across...

Analysis of monthly disaggregated data from 1978 to 2016 on US household inflation expectations reveals that exposure to news on inflation and monetary policy helps to explain inflation expectations. This remains true when controlling for household personal characteristics, their perceptions of...

Consumer inflation expectations are highly disperse, with some households reporting very high inflation forecasts. In recent years, disagreement in longer-run inflation expectations has fallen, reflecting compression in the upper part of the distribution. The 75th percentile of the distribution...

Using data from the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations, we examine the information content of the updates to household inflation expectations. We find that, although consumers frequently revise their expectations, the adjustments are largely uninformative