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We develop a model to predict bankruptcies, exploiting that negative book equity is a strong indicator of financial distress. Accordingly, our key predictor of bankruptcy is the probability that future losses will deplete a firm's book equity. To calculate this probability, we use earnings...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012899828
This paper investigates the association between current dividends and analysts’ subsequent earnings forecast errors …. This investigation is motivated by the evidence on analyst optimism and Ohlson (1991)’s fundamental valuation theory that … positively correlated with analysts’ future forecast errors, suggesting that analysts potentially ignore the displacement effect …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013491792
profit margin provide incremental information for predicting changes in future return on assets. After controlling for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010520353
earnings forecasters, we see that small adjustments to the model forecasts lead to more forecast accuracy. Based on past track …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010490078
This paper presents results from an experiment and follow-up survey examining whether stock prices influence analysts' earnings forecasts. In our experiment, prices influence analysts' forecasts when uncertainty about future earnings is high, but not when uncertainty is low. Additional analyses...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139640
assessment is relative to extrapolative time-series models of earnings forecasts. The paper's results show that the forecast … on extrapolative models' forecast errors is stronger than on analysts'. This finding is consistent with analysts' better … ability relative to extrapolative models to forecast the earnings of intangible firms, and with analysts' ability to process …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013113385
when analysts forecast negative or large changes in EPS. We also compare the accuracy of a third forecast of longer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013116514
The state of the art in the analyst forecasting literature is that analyst earnings forecast ability is only firm … absence of a “spillover” effect, i.e., investors do not consider an analyst's earnings forecast ability regarding firm k when … reacting to his earnings forecast revision for firm j. We re-examine the issue of whether or not earnings forecast ability is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013070639
Crowdsourcing — when a task normally performed by employees is outsourced to a large network of people via an open call — is making inroads into the investment research industry. We shed light on this new phenomenon by examining the value of crowdsourced earnings forecasts. Our sample...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012957645
forecast disclosure only accrue to bidders with a strong forecasting reputation prior to the acquisition. Explaining why not … all bidders forecast, we document a higher likelihood of post-merger litigation and CEO turnover for bidders with a weak …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012905443