This paper describes a way to model a seasonally and irregularly peaking price dynamics, as that originated in commodity and energy markets, using a system of coupled nonlinear stochastic differential equations. The specific case of an electric power market is used to show which microeconomic...

This paper proposes a new set of transformed polynomial functions that provide a flexible setting for nonlinear autoregressive modeling of the conditional mean while at the same time ensuring the strict stationarity, ergodicity, fading memory and existence of moments of the implied stochastic...

Using the path-integral formalism we develop an accurate and easy-to-compute semi-analytical approximation to transition probabilities and Arrow-Debreu densities for arbitrary diffusions. We illustrate the accuracy of the method by presenting results for the Black-Karasinski model for which the...