Dynamic economic models make predictions about impulse responses that characterize how macroeconomic processes respond to alternative shocks over different horizons. From the perspective of asset pricing, impulse responses quantify the exposure of macroeconomic processes and other cash flows to...

This paper examined a set of over two thousand crypto-coins observed between 2015 and 2020 to estimate their credit risk by computing their probability of death. We employed different definitions of dead coins, ranging from academic literature to professional practice, alternative forecasting...

We propose a nonparametric Bayesian approach for conducting inference on probabilistic surveys. We use this approach to study whether U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters density projections for output growth and inflation are consistent with the noisy rational expectations hypothesis. We...

Inference of predictive regression over multiple horizons is challenging because of over- lapping observations. We show that the size of the test based on the popular Hodrick standard errors can approach one if the horizon grows at a faster rate than the rotated norm of short-run predictability...

In this paper, we analyzed a dataset of over 2000 crypto-assets to assess their credit risk by computing their probability of death using the daily range. Unlike conventional low-frequency volatility models that only utilize close-to-close prices, the daily range incorporates all the information...

We explore the cost of implicit leverage associated with an S&P 500 Index futures contract and derive an implied financing rate (the Futures-Implied Rate or FIR), based on a simple model of stock and futures, without any explicit arbitrage or other relationship to market interest rates. We...

This article proposes a new empirical methodology for computing a cross-market volatility index - coined CMIX - based on the Factor-Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model, implemented on volatility surprises. This approach solves problems in treating high-dimensional data and estimating...

We develop a nonlinear state-space model that captures the joint dynamics of consumption, dividend growth, and asset returns. Our model consists of an economy containing a common predictable component for consumption and dividend growth and multiple stochastic volatility processes. The...

The way in which market participants form expectations affects the dynamic properties of financial asset prices and therefore the appropriateness of different econometric tools used for empirical asset pricing. In addition to standard rational expectations models, this thesis studies a class of...

This paper explicitly tests the hypothesis that illiquidity risk is not priced in the Polish medium-size emerging stock market. To address this issue, we employ a liquidity-adjusted capital asset pricing model which explains how asset prices are affected by illiquidity risk and commonality in...