Stock market fundamentals would not seem to meaningfully predict returns over a shorter-term horizon - instead, I shift focus to severe downside risk (i.e., crashes). I use the cointegrating relationship between the log S&P Composite Index and log earnings over 1871 to 2015, combined with...

Movements in asset prices are a major risk confronting individuals. This paper establishes new asset pricing results when agents differ in risk preference, time preference and/or expectations. It shows that risk tolerance is a critical concept driving savings decisions, consumption allocations,...

We study learning and uncertainty under the factor investing paradigm using an endogenous information model with correlated assets. As investors shift attention from firms towards systematic risk factors, stock prices become less informative, increasing systematic uncertainty and incentivizing...