The paper discusses the latest economic crisis and the public policies used to mitigate the recession and improve the economic growth. The current target rate (monetary policy) is closed to zero since December 2008 with a new experimental policy (“quantitative easing”) to stimulate...

We apply non-linear error-correction models to the empirical testing of the sustainability of the government's intertemporal budget constraint. Our empirical analysis, based on Italy, shows that the Italian government is meeting its intertemporal budget constraint, in spite of the high levels of...

This paper empirically explores how fiscal policy (represented by increases in government spending) has asymmetric effects on economic activity at different levels of real interest rates. It suggests that the effect of fiscal policy depends on the level of real rates, since the Ricardian effect...

At a time when Algeria must undertake considerable fiscal consolidation to restore sustainability, the issueof fiscal multipliers has come to the fore. This paper estimates short-term and long-term fiscal multipliersfor Algeria applying several econometric methodologies, including Local...

This paper estimates and analyzes multipliers for tax revenue and public spending for Colombia using structural autoregressive vectors and local projections models. Quarterly series of the central national government between 2000Q1 and 2018Q4 are used. The results show fiscal multipliers that...

I develop a new method for approximating and estimating nonlinear, non-Gaussian state space models. I show that any such model can be well approximated by a discrete-state Markov process and estimated using techniques developed in Hamilton (1989). Through Monte Carlo simulations, I demonstrate...

This paper introduces a highly analytically tractable parametric model for modelling interest-rate tick movements and arbitrage-free pricing interest-rate options. We apply it to loan prime rates (LPR), the foremost benchmark interest rates that matter to almost all businesses and households in...

We forecast the term structure of U.S. Treasury zero-coupon bond yields by analyzing a range of models that have been used in the literature. We assess the relevance of parameter uncertainty by examining the added value of using Bayesian inference compared to frequentist estimation techniques,...

Inflation targeting has been widely adopted in Latin America. In this paper, we show evidence consistent with major beneficial effects from so doing, with falling term premia and anchored policy rate expectations. To do this we construct term premia estimates using the method suggested by Adrian...