We estimate government spending multipliers in demand- and supply-driven recessions for the Euro Area. Multipliers in a moderately demand-driven recession are 2-3 times larger than in a moderately supply-driven recession, with the difference between multipliers being non-zero with very high...

Cogan et al. (2009, 2010) claim that the stimulus package passed by the United States Congress in February 2009 had a multiplier far below one. However, the stimulus ́multiplier strongly depends on the assumed monetary policy response. Based on official statements from the Fed chairman, the...

This paper proposes a methodology to price bonds jointly issued by a group of countries—called Eurobonds in the euro-area context. We consider two types of bonds: the first is backed by several and joint (SJG) guarantees, the second features several but not joint (SNJG) guarantees. A crucial...

Exploiting information contained in the term-structure of sovereign credit spreads, we estimate time-varying fiscal limits – defined as the maximum outstanding debt that can credibly be covered by future primary budget surpluses. Our approach is based on a novel sovereign credit risk model...

We study how unconventional monetary policy affects the shape of the yield curve and, conversely, the predictive power of short-run yield curve dynamics for the policy event. Two types of unconventional monetary policy measures are analysed: i) announcements and actions related to extension of...

Most existing hedging theories are derived under strong, idealistic assumptions on both the underlying security price dynamics and the trading environments. Practical concerns such as contract availability, transaction cost, and uncertainty regarding the security price dynamics impose severe...

The recent macro-finance yield curve literature does not agree neither about term premia empirical properties nor about the importance or even the direction of its relationship with future economic activity. This paper proposes a two-step approach to handle both problems. First, in a VAR...

The Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model is widely-used for modelling the yield curve, yet many authors have reported ‘numerical difficulties' when calibrating the model. We argue that the problem is twofold: firstly, the optimisation problem is not convex and has multiple local optima. Hence standard...

Most existing hedging approaches are based on neutralizing risk exposures defined under a pre-specified model. This paper proposes a new, simple, and robust hedging approach based on the affinity of the derivative contracts. As a result, the strategy does not depend on assumptions on the...

This paper implements an affine term structure model that accommodates "unspanned" macro risks for the Euro area, i.e. distinct from yield-curve risks. I use an averaging-estimator approach to obtain a better estimation of the historical dynamics of the pricing factors, thus providing more...