This paper argues that the distribution of the coefficients of the regular continued fraction should be considered for each algebraic number of degree 2 separately. For random numbers the coefficients are distributed by the Gauss-Kuzmin distribution (also called Khinchin's law). We apply the...

We study the relationship between credit expansions, macroeconomic fluctuations, and financial crises using a novel database on the sectoral distribution of private credit for116 countries starting in 1940. Theory predicts that the sectoral allocation of credit matters for distinguishing between...

Based on monthly data covering the period from 1987 to 2019, we analyse whether cross-sectional moments of stock market returns may provide information about the future position of the German business cycle. We apply in-sample forecasting regressions with and without leading indicators as...

An extensive literature studies interactions of stock market anomalies using double-sorted portfolios. But given hundreds of known candidate anomalies, examining selected interactions is subject to a data mining critique. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of all possible...

Do politics matter for macroprudential policy? I show that changes to macroprudential regulation exhibit a predictable electoral cycle in the run-up to 221 elections across 58 countries from 2000 through 2014. Policies restricting mortgages and consumer credit are systematically less likely to...