We embed a lockdown choice in a simplified epidemiological model and derive formulas for the optimal lockdown intensity and duration. The optimal policy reflects the rate of time preference, epidemiological factors, the hazard rate of vaccine discovery, learning effects in the health care...

In early 2020, COVID-19 infected people throughout the world and brought world commerce to a standstill. Many believe that governments and global businesses were not as prepared as they should have been. While academics have occasionally predicted the economic problems that could result from...