Reputational herding has been considered as a driving force behind economic and financial forecasts clustered around consensus values. Strategic coordination can consequently explain poor performances of prediction markets as resulting from the distinct incentives that forecasters face. While...

Experimental research found contradictory results regarding the occurrence of informational cascades. Whereas Anderson and Holt [Anderson, L.R., Holt, C.A., 1997. Information cascades in the laboratory. The American Economic Review 87, 847-862] confirmed the model of Banerjee [Banerjee, A.V.,...

Capital market forecasts sometimes suffer from a too intensive orientation towards the current market situation and lose their future-orientated character. This phenomenon can be referred to as Topical Orientated Trend Adjustment (GOVA). For an individual statistical proof we develop a new...