Status quo bias is a systematic cognitive error which makes it difficult for individuals to make decisions independently of the currently dominant situation. This study pursues the question of whether bond market analysts are affected by status quo bias. We evaluated interest rate forecast...

This study evaluates 10-year US government bond yield forecasts and three-month US Treasury bill rate forecasts for the period between October 1989 and December 2004. In total, 136 forecast time series with approximately 13,800 forecast data were scrutinized, making this the most extensive...

Reputational herding has been considered as a driving force behind economic and financial forecasts clustered around consensus values. Strategic coordination can consequently explain poor performances of prediction markets as resulting from the distinct incentives that forecasters face. While...

Zinsprognosen spielen eine bedeutende Rolle für verschiedene Bereiche des Bankgeschäftes. Die Auswertung von historischen Prognosezeitreihen von 19 prominenten deutschen Bankhäusern nährt allerdings erhebliche Zweifel daran, dass die Anstrengungen zur Prognose der künftigen Zinsentwicklung...