Understand the potential implications for portfolio performance and construction if fiscal and monetary policies produce a sustained period of positive stock-bond correlation. In a world of positive stock-bond correlation, the performance of a balanced portfolio will suffer, but the benefits of...

Recessions are a regularity of the economic landscape. In this research paper we provide a guide for CIOs to help them assess and interpret recession probability models, and explore several related issues that they should consider

US stock-bond correlation, which plays an important role in institutional portfolio construction, has been persistently negative for the last 20y. This negative correlation allows stocks and bonds to serve as a hedge for each other, enabling CIOs to increase stock allocations while still...

Models of economic geography posit that the density of economic activity has two effects that oppose each other in equilibrium: decreasing returns to productive activities due to congestion effects and increasing returns that result from information spillovers and local demand externalities. In...

A recent research publication develops a new business cycle forecasting technique using a metric called “Mahalanobis distance.” This measure is intuitive, is based on a straightforward set of computations, is able to identify post-war US recessions with few false positives, and, as claimed...

Models of economic geography posit that the density of economic activity has two e¤ects that oppose each other in equilibrium: decreasing returns to productive activities due to congestion e¤ects and increasing returns that result from information spillovers and local demand externalities. In...