This note provides a replication of Martin's (Quarterly Journal of Economics; 2017) finding that the implied volatility measure SVIX predicts US stock market returns up to twelvemonth horizons. I find that this result holds for both S&P 500 and CRSP market returns, regardless of whether returns...

We provide evidence that institutions place lower trading priority and delay their trading in small, illiquid stocks. The slow trading of small stocks in turn delays the adjustment of small stock prices. In contrast, for large, liquid stocks, institutions demand immediacy, which generates some...

This paper provides new evidence on the role of exchange rates in forecasting commodity prices. Consistent with previous studies, we find that commodity currencies hold out-of-sample predictive power for commodity prices when using standard linear predictive regressions. After we reconsider the...

The VAR approach for testing present value models is applied to a nonlinear asset pricing model with three types of agents, using historical US stock prices and dividends. Besides rational long-term investors, that value assets according to expected dividends, the model includes rational and...

Previous studies have cast doubt on the construct validity of the asymmetric timeliness (AT) coefficient from the Basu (1997) model as a measure of conditional conservatism. The purpose of this paper is to clarify the exact conditions under which the AT coefficient fails to identify accounting...

We estimate panel vector autoregressions to analyze the highly disputed relationship between sovereign debt and economic growth. Using data on 20 developed countries, we find no evidence for a robust effect of debt on growth, even for higher levels of debt. We do find a significant negative...

We develop a volatility decomposition derived from flexible local projections to quantify the relative contributions of expected discount rates and cash flows to the variation of dividend yields. Local projections enable the incorporation of large information sets, the use of monthly data along...

This study provides a replication of the empirical results reported by Nowak-Lehmann, Dreher, Herzer, Klasen, and Martínez-Zarzoso (2012) (henceforth NDHKM). We uncover that NDHKM relied on a regression model which included a log transformation of variables that are not strictly positive. This...

The Herzer et al. (2014) comment on our article (Lof et al., 2014) addresses two issues. First, they propose various ways to circumvent our concerns regarding data handling in a paper by Nowak-Lehmann et al. (2012). We point out that under these new approaches the link between the empirical...