and by the work of British economist G.L.S. Shackle. We then explain why Buchanan was at pains explicitly to describe his …

individuals is the most relevant message conveyed by the General Theory. This paper starts off from a brief summary of Akerlof and … concentrates on Keynes’s Treatise on Probability and discusses how Keynes applied his philosophy of probability to decision … agents behave under uncertainty, and that the violations of the Bayesian creed scrutinized in behavioural finance, and in …

of interest. Max-min expected utility over that set gives rise to equilibrium prices of model uncertainty expressed as … a baseline model that generate countercyclical prices of uncertainty …

rely on these probability measures. Downside risk neutral probabilities allow to value assets in a simple mean …

neutral measure, which is also a risk-adjusted measure. Using risk preference theory, we interpret this change in probability …We show that there exists a probability measure under which the CAPM formula for expected returns holds for general … utility functions and probability distributions. This probability measure, the ``downside risk neutral'' measure, is adjusted …