(ii) deliver a significantly improved match between ex ante and ex post forecast uncertainty. According to our estimates …, uncertainty about inflation, output growth and unemployment in the U.S. and the Euro area is higher after correcting for the … survey‐based average uncertainty during the years since the financial and sovereign debt crisis. …

ante. We outline a multi-step, logical approach for addressing such problems in theory with the goal of providing an …

Shackle's non-probabilistic conceptualisation of individual decisions under uncertainty from a specific viewpoint, namely … uncertainty, the so-called non-additive probability approach of Gilboa and Schmeidler. The paper shows that these developments in … modern decision theory take Shackle's issue seriously. The paper argues that the non-additive approach to decision theory …

Prospect theory (PT) is the dominant descriptive theory of decision making under risk today. For the modeling of … value function; and attitudes towards probabilities, captured in a probability weighting function. However, while it is … experiments. In the first experiment, we elicit the value and probability weighting functions both under known and unknown …

We present the first calibration of quantum decision theory (QDT) to an empirical data set. The data comprise 91 … that the probability of a choice can be expressed as the sum of its utility and attraction factors. We propose to model (a …) the utility factor with a stochastic version of cumulative prospect theory (logit-CPT), and (b) the attraction factor with …