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Two of the most well known regularities observed in preferences under risk and uncertainty are ambiguity aversion and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011704845
We present the first calibration of quantum decision theory (QDT) to an empirical data set. The data comprise 91 … that the probability of a choice can be expressed as the sum of its utility and attraction factors. We propose to model (a …) the utility factor with a stochastic version of cumulative prospect theory (logit-CPT), and (b) the attraction factor with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011516615
Prospect theory (PT) is the dominant descriptive theory of decision making under risk today. For the modeling of … value function; and attitudes towards probabilities, captured in a probability weighting function. However, while it is … experiments. In the first experiment, we elicit the value and probability weighting functions both under known and unknown …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009792472
Vague, or imprecise, news may affect decisions by changing either the fundamentals, or the associated uncertainty, or … vague news conveying a relatively high probability of success, subjects exhibit insensitivity to the ambiguity component …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012930993
This paper discusses models of choice under imprecise objective probabilistic information featuring beliefs about beliefs -- second order beliefs. A new model, called Second Order Dual Expected Utility (SODEU) featuring non-additive second order beliefs is introduced, axiomatized and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011674093
expected utility paradigm. This paper develops a theory of decision making with a partially specified probability. The paper …In Ellsberg paradox, decision makers that are partially informed about the actual probability distribution violate the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014058551
Decision and risk analysts have considerable discretion in designing procedures for eliciting subjective probabilities. One of the most popular approaches is to specify a particular set of exclusive and exhaustive events for which the assessor provides such judgments. We show that assessed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014063777
This chapter provides a critical review of the theories of decision making under risk and under uncertainty and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014025531
dependence in probabilities. According to this model, individuals form subjective beliefs on the potential winning probability of … the ambiguous asset; use the winning probability of the (simultaneously presented) risky asset as a reference point to …; weight losses in probability heavier than gains in probability. We tested the crucial assumption, reference dependence in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013091978
averse (attracted) to the dispersion of outcomes. Cumulative prospect theory with our proposed probability weighting function …This paper presents a new two-parameter probability weighting function for Tversky and Kahneman (1992) cumulative … prospect theory as well as its special cases — Quiggin (1981) rank-dependent utility and Yaari (1987) dual model. The proposed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013060674