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On the Dynamics of Beliefs and Risky Sexual Behavior

Toxvaerd, Flavio - 2020

This paper analyzes the dynamic interplay between individuals beliefs over transmission risks and their decisions on whether to engage in unprotected sexual behavior. The infectious disease is (possibly) asymptomatic, which makes the inference problem non-trivial. In general, the dynamics of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843408

Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling, Second Version

Gilboa, Itzhak - 2008

Economic modeling assumes, for the most part, that agents are Bayesian, that is, that they entertain probabilistic beliefs, objective or subjective, regarding any event in question. We argue that the formation of such beliefs calls for a deeper examination and for explicit modeling. Models of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012725715

Structural Uncertainty and the Value of Statistical Life in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change

Weitzman, Martin - 2007

Using climate change as a prototype motivating example, this paper analyzes the implications of structural uncertainty for the economics of low-probability high-impact catastrophes. The paper shows that having an uncertain multiplicative parameter, which scales or amplifies exogenous shocks and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012775805

Prices of Macroeconomic Uncertainties with Tenuous Beliefs

Hansen, Lars Peter - 2017

ambiguity, he uses a max-min criterion to evaluate alternative plans. We use this decision theory to construct competitive …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012955704

The Global Crisis, Economics and Economic Behavior : Uncertainty, Expectations and Human Behavior Matters?

Sherstnev, Mikhail - 2017

The paper analyzes the current discussions on the state of economics with special focus on the interrelationships between key ideas of economic theories and real actions of economic policy in the course of the global economic crisis. The global economic crisis showed the limited ability of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012959218

Loss Uncertainty, Gain Uncertainty, and Expected Stock Returns

Feunou, Bruno - 2019

their fluctuations, called the loss and gain quadratic risk premium (QRP) respectively. The loss QRP interprets as the … premium paid for downside risk hedging, while the gain QRP reads as the premium received for upside risk compensation. Long …-short portfolio strategies based on the loss or gain QRP yield monthly risk-adjusted expected excess returns of up to 2.8%. This cross …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012900726

Event-Specific Uncertainty and its Expected Resolution

Iselin, Michael - 2019

Standard models of Bayesian updating predict a stronger investor reaction to new information when those investors are more uncertain about the firm. However, prior empirical literature has struggled to find widespread evidence in support of this prediction. This paper tests two explanations for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902652

Expected Equity Returns Should Correlate with Idiosyncratic Risk

Bruno, Giovanni - 2018

law of one price, and is present in all but risk-neutral economies. We test the cross-sectional predictions of our theory …Because levered equity is an option on the firm, variations in asset idiosyncratic risk (ivol) induces a negative … equity than for assets, and stronger for more levered firms — consistent with the theory. We test also the timeseries …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910108

Loss Uncertainty, Gain Uncertainty, and Expected Stock Returns

Feunou, Bruno - 2019

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012899155

Tradable Green Certificates for Renewable Support : The Role of Expectations and Uncertainty

Hustveit, Magne - 2017

This paper analyzes tradable green certificate markets, where producers investing in new renewable capacity receive certificates based on their production. These are sold to electricity retailers, who are required to buy certificates in an amount proportional to their total sales. To assess the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012944210