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Observed macroeconomic forecasts display gradual recognition of the long-run growth of endogenous variables (e.g. output, output per hour) and a positive correlation between long-run growth expectations and cyclical activities. Existing business cycle models appear inconsistent with the...
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assumptions of the emerging state of the world. We borrow the idea of risk from the finance literature and compare the payoff of … staying with the original outcome with the risk of deviating. Employing this idea to the core leads to a new concept that we … call the risk-based core. We introduce this concept and discuss its properties. We find an inclusion relation between cores …
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We use unique data from the Berea Panel Study to characterize how much earnings uncertainty is present for students at college entrance and how quickly this uncertainty is resolved. We characterize uncertainty using survey questions that elicit the entire distribution describing one’s beliefs...
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We provide a critique of the methods that have been used to derive measures of income risk and draw attention to the … importance of demographic factors as a source of income risk. We also propose new measures of the contribution to total income … risk of demographic and labour market factors. Empirical evidence supporting our arguments is provided using data from the …
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