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This paper brings together two strands of the empirical macro literature: the reduced-form evidence that the yield spread helps in forecasting output and the structural evidence on the difficulties of estimating the effect of monetary policy on output in an intertemporal Euler equation. We show...
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From the normatively given aims of the macroeconomic equilibrium, which describe the target state of an economy system, necessary conditions are derived at an optimal growth path with maximum consumption and maximum profits on the interest structure of a market economy, by using the golden rule...
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Konsum und maximalen Gewinnen abgeleitet. Aus den Bedingungen für eine optimale Zinsstruktur wird eine neue Geldpolitik … Keynes notwendige Bedingungen an die Zinsstruktur einer Marktwirtschaft auf einem optimalen Wachstumspfad mit maximalem … Vollbeschäftigung verspricht. -- Liquiditätsprämie ; Liquiditätsfalle ; Liquiditätsgebühr ; Zinsstruktur ; Eigenzins ; Negativzins …
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We analyze the causes of the apparent bias towards optimism in growth forecasts underpinning the design of IMF-supported programs, which has been documented in the literature. We find that financial variables observable to forecasters are strong predictors of growth forecast errors. The greater...
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