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Concern over currency manipulation plays a major role in international economic diplomacy. Unfortunately, the concept is not well defined, and the most coherent explanations apply to a concept more accurately termed “saving manipulation,” as it has little to do with market exchange rates. I...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012840489
We examine the relationship between domestic saving and the current account in developing countries. Our three main findings are that: (i) domestic saving has a small effect on the current account; (ii) domestic saving has a significant positive effect on the trade balance – this effect is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889070
-run capital flows in both theory and in the data. For this purpose, we develop a two region overlapping generations model where … countries differ in their population growth and mortality risk. Besides exploring the implications of demographics for saving …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012895121
We study the evolution of the U.S. current account in a two-country dynamic stochastic endowment model in which a single non-state contingent bond is the only internationally traded asset. The paper focuses on the world `saving glut' as the primary cause of continual deterioration in the current...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759722
, suggesting a heightened role for precautionary savings. This paper uses a parameterized small open economy model to quantify the … role of precautionary savings in economies with exhaustible resources, when the only source of uncertainty is the price of … the exhaustible resource. Results show that the precautionary motive can generate sizable external sector savings. When …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012764430
two-country model without exchange rate driven expenditure switching, I analyze savings glut shocks and three drivers of … OECD economies since the mid 1990s. Housing drivers alone imply counterfactual interest rate dynamics. Savings glut shocks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012971161
This paper provides new evidence relating to the debate of whether long-lived TOT shocks affect saving rates using a sample of 56 developing countries for the period 1980-2010. The core aspect of the empirical analysis is to utilize the terms-of-trade (TOT) shock-duration and trend-growth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013027168
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012700046
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012628996
We investigate, in the case of Germany, the positive correlation between the cyclical components of the corporate saving glut in the non-financial corporate sector and the current account surplus from a capital account perspective. Employing sign restrictions, our findings suggest that mostly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012607560