We first establish that policymakers on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee choose lower interest rates with experience. We then reject increasing confidence in private information or learning about the structure of the macroeconomy as explanations for this shift. Instead, a model in...

We test whether outside experts have information not available to insiders by using the voting record of the Bank of Englands Monetary Policy Committee. Members with more private information should vote more often against conventional wisdom, which we measure as the average belief of market...

We first establish that policymakers on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee choose lower interest rates with experience. We then reject increasing confidence in private information or learning about the structure of the macroeconomy as explanations for this shift. Instead, a model in...

We first establish that policymakers on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee choose lower interest rates with experience. We then reject increasing confidence in private information or learning about the structure of the macroeconomy as explanations for this shift. Instead, a model in...

This paper provides new evidence on the effects of fiscal policy by studying, using household-level data, how households respond to shifts in government spending. Our identification strategy allows us to control for time-specific aggregate effects, such as the stance of monetary policy or the...

This paper provides new evidence on the effects of fiscal policy by studying, using household-level data, how households respond to shifts in government spending. Our identification strategy allows us to control for time-specific aggregate effects, such as the stance of monetary policy or the...

In many areas of economics there is a growing interest in how expertise and preferences drive individual and group decision making under uncertainty. Increas- ingly, we wish to estimate such models to quantify which of these drive decision making. In this paper we propose a new channel through...

In many areas of economics there is a growing interest in how expertise and preferences drive individual and group decision making under uncertainty.Increasingly, we wish to estimate such models to quantify which of these drive decision making. In this paper we propose a newc hannel through...