Historically, unusually strong increases in credit and asset prices have tended to precede banking crises. Could the current crisis have been anticipated by exploiting this relationship? We explore this question by assessing the out-of-sample performance of leading indicators of banking system...

What are liquidity crises? And what can be done to address them? This short paper brings together some personal reflections on this issue, largely based on previous work. In the process, it questions a number of commonly held beliefs that have become part of the conventional wisdom. The paper is...

Prudential tools that target financial stability need to be calibrated at the level of the financial system but implemented at the level of each regulated institution. They require a methodology for the allocation of system-wide risk to the individual institution in line with its systemic...

Over the last decade or so, addressing financial instability has become a policy priority. Despite the efforts made, policymakers are still a long way from developing a satisfactory operational framework. A major challenge complicating this task is the "fuzziness" with which financial...

This paper was presented at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Symposium on "Monetary Policy and Uncertainty: Adapting to a Changing Economy" at Jackson Hole, Wyoming on 28-30 August 2003. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the BIS.

We argue that in order to achieve price stability in a sustainable way, central banks should consider paying greater attention to credit in their monetary policy strategies than is generally the case at present. Specifically, simply setting monetary policy so that a two-year inflation forecast...

This paper compares the responses of short-term bank lending rates to policy rates in a sample of 12 industrialised countries and seeks to relate them to characteristics of the financial system and of the policy environment. The degree of competition in the loan market and the clarity of the...

Over the last decade or so, addressing financial instability has risen to the top of the policy agenda. This essay argues that in order to improve the safeguards against financial instability, it may be desirable to strengthen further the macroprudential orientation of current prudential...

Since the 1980s, a number of episodes of financial market distress have underscored the importance of the smooth functioning of markets for the stability of the financial system. At the heart of these episodes was a sudden and drastic reduction in market liquidity, characterised by disorderly...

This paper explores primarily how financial arrangements may be responsible for creating or exacerbating inflationary pressures in Yugoslavia. The ways in which financial arrangements can contribute to inflation are discussed under three different headings: misallocation of savings and credit,...