European countries have increased significantly their public debt since the Global Financial Crisis. The increasing trend and the high concentration of public debt in portfolios of financial institutions can lead to a financial turmoil we witnessed during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis....

European countries have increased significantly their public debt since the Global Financial Crisis. The increasing trend and the high concentration of public debt in portfolios of financial institutions can lead to a financial turmoil we witnessed during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis....

This study proposes an alternative, fully probabilistic approach to combining model-based forecasts with surveys or other judgmental forecasts. This approach allows data to determine how informative survey forecasts are regarding the data-generating process by probabilistically exploiting...