Chapter 1 provides an overview and assessment of the price competitiveness and export performance of the euro area and the larger euro area countries, as well as an evaluation of how standard equations have been able to explain actual export developments. Chapter 2 carries out a constant market...

Euro area GDP and components are nowcast and forecast one quarter ahead. Based on a dataset of 163 series comprising the relevant monthly indicators, simple bridge equations with one explanatory variable are estimated for each. The individual forecasts generated by each equation are then pooled,...

Several factor-based models are estimated to investigate the role of country-specific trade and survey data in forecasting euro area manufacturing production. Following Boivin and Ng (2006), the emphasis is put on the choice of the dataset chosen to estimate the factors. Four datasets are built...

We develop a partial adjustment model in order to estimate the factors contributing to banks’ internal target capital ratio, lending policy and holding of securities. The model is estimated on a panel of listed euro area banks and country specific macrovariables. Firstly, banks’ internal...

Combining forecasts, we analyse the role of information flow in computing short-term forecasts up to one quarter ahead for the euro area GDP and its main components. A dataset of 114 monthly indicators is set up and simple bridge equations are estimated. The individual forecasts are then pooled,...

[fre] Afin de déterminer les taux de change réels d'équilibre de l'euro et du dollar, nous étudions le déficit public comme facteur de distorsion de change. Nous montrons la possibilité, à court et à moyen terme, de sur-réaction du taux de change réel à une variation du solde...

We develop a simple model which integrates the public deficit in an equilibrium exchange rate model framework. This allows us to expose the overshooting of the exchange rate following a variation of the fiscal balance. Integrating this variable into the NATREX model, we estimate the dollar and...

type="main" xml:lang="en" <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>The international financial crisis and the euro-area sovereign debt crisis brought to the fore the importance of financial conditions to the macro-economy. The complexity of the financial sector means that a wide range of financial variables is needed to fully...</p>