The study aims at simulating and forecasting a company's stock returns and prices by a fundamentalist analysis process based on a Vector Error Correction with Exogenous Variables (VECX) econometric model. To achieve this, we selected relevant fundamentalist indicators and specified a model...

We investigate the empirical relationship between stock returns, return volatility and trading volume using data from the Brazilian stock market (Bovespa). Our sample contains stock return and trading volume data from a theoretical portfolio including stocks participating in the Bovespa Index...

This paper estimates the impact of reserve requirements (RR) on credit supply in Brazil, exploring a large loan-level dataset. We use a difference-in-difference strategy, first in a long panel, then in a cross-section. In the first case, we estimate the average effect on credit supply of several...

Exploiting an unemployment insurance (UI) reform in Brazil, we study incentive effects of UI in the presence of informal labor markets. We find that eligibility for UI benefits increases formal layoffs by twelve percent. Most of the additional formal layoffs are related to workers transitioning...

We assess the employment and income effects of access to credit dedicated to investment in individual mobility (a motorcycle). For identification, we exploit random time-series variation in access to credit through random lotteries for participants in a group-lending mechanism in Brazil. We find...

Credit unions (CUs) may respond to a financial shock differently than other types of banks because of their unique membership-based governance structure. We exploit the financial crisis of 2008/09 as a negative shock to Brazilian banks and analyze the lending behavior of CUs in comparison to...

This article examines the existence of lead-lag effects between the U.S. stock market, represented by NYSE and the Brazilian stock market, represented by Bovespa, i.e., whether upward and downward price movements in the NYSE are followed, on average, by similar movements in Bovespa, which would...

This paper reports the development and estimation of a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) econometric model representing the financial statements of a firm. Although the model can be generalized to represent the financial statements of any firm, this work was carried out as a case study, where the...

In this paper, we document that a more generous unemployment insurance (UI) system shifts labor supply from safer to riskier firms and reduces the compensating wage differential that riskier firms are required to pay. Reallocation of labor supply towards riskier firms has real implications for...

This paper details efforts at developing and estimating a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) econometric model representative of the financial statements of a firm. Although the model can be generalized to represent the financial statements of any firm, this work was carried out as a case study, where...