It is generally held that derivative prices do not contain useful predictive information, that is, information relating to the distribution of future financial variables under the real-world measure. This is because the market's implicit forecast of the future becomes entangled with market risk...

It is generally held that derivative prices do not contain useful predictive information, that is, information relating to the distribution of future financial variables under the real-world measure. This is because the market’s implicit forecast of the future becomes entangled with market...

I study the relationship between interest rates and interest-rate volatility, particularly the idea of unspanned stochastic volatility (USV): volatility risk that cannot be hedged with bonds or swaps. Simulated data is used to assess the ability of regression-based techniques, popular but...

Certain models of the term structure of interest rates exhibit unspanned stochastic volatility (USV). A model has this property if it involves a source of stochastic variation — called an unspanned factor — that does not affect the model's interest rates directly, but does affect the extent...

We develop a structural model of the firm that allows after-interest cash to be directed to dividends, buybacks or some combination thereof. We study the effects of dilutions and buybacks on the value of the firm's claimants and on options written on the stock. We distinguish between options on...

As unspanned stochastic volatility (USV) models gain popularity in the literature, bivariate USV models (with one spanned and one unspanned factor) become a fundamental model class: they are the simplest USV models that are potentially useful, and (like general one-factor models) they are...

This draft paper outlines a term structure model that models the short rate as a sum of n Gaussian processes (a 'Gn' model). It is shown that the given specification involves no redundant parameters and gives rise to a non-trivial multifactor term structure model. A closed-form expression,...