This article analyses agents’ perception of the period of low inflation in recent years, in the context of a model in which these agents form their expectations on the basis of simple forecasting rules. The approach used allows a distinction to be drawn between which portion of the low...

Those of professional forecasters do. For a wide range of time series models for the euro area and its member states we find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF and Consensus Economics compared to their...

Those of professional forecasters do. For a wide range of time series models for the euro area and its member states we find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF and Consensus Economics compared to their...

Based on market expectations reported by the Central Bank of Brazil for the SELIC interest rate, the IPCA inflation, the exchange rate (BRL/USD) and the growth rate of industrial production for four different forecasting horizons, this work analyzes the term structures of disagreement in...

This paper analyses the role of inflation expectations in the euro area. On one hand, the question is how inflation expectations affect both inflation and output, and, on the other hand, how inflation expectations reflect developments in these variables. The analyses make use of a simple VAR...

Those of professional forecasters do. For a wide range of time series models for the euro area and its member states we find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF and Consensus Economics compared to their...