We analyze three different mechanical models to forecast earnings and compare their forecasts with those of analysts … from analysts' forecasts more reliable than ICCs based on model forecasts? And 3) does higher forecast performance also … reliability of analyst-based ICCs seems to indicate a missing link between forecast performance and ICC reliability, in fact …

. We examine this link by testing whether management earnings forecasts (MEFs) of firms meeting/beating analysts’ forecast … benchmarks exhibit greater credibility than MEFs of firms missing these benchmarks, based on the informativeness of forecast news …. We find for meet/beat firms, the association of forecast news with cumulative abnormal returns is stronger than for miss …